← GuildHall PTM Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at GuildHall PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.7% | +21.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arcane Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |